Despite robust activism, Gaza did not move the needle on US elections

Jean Tawil – Polyblog Opinion

To the dismay of Pro-Palestine activists who gambled on turning the popular student protests for Palestine into a long-lasting influential issue within US domestic politics, election night on November fifth reconfirmed that American voters are – when it matters most – not moved by issues and causes that take place outside their borders.

In the lead up to election night, pro-Palestine advocates and activists vowed to withhold their support for the Democratic Party ticket in the supposedly close race unless Harris would mark a significant policy shift by floating an arms embargo on Israel. She didn’t, and Harris did lose to Trump in a decisive victory in which he won all 7 battleground states.

Yet, despite robust student-led opposition to American support to Israel and widespread support among American citizens for a ceasefire, the election results we observe confirm that Harris’s position on Gaza and the impact of voters who made it their top priority did not amount to having a decisive impact.

One indicator In the 2024 US presidential election was the distribution of Arab American voters between Donald Trump and Jill Stein. Voter behavior reflected nuanced priorities regarding both domestic and foreign policies.

Trump, who brokered peace agreements known as the Abraham Accords in the Middle East and beyond during his first term, appealed to voters who believed he could replicate this success and foster further stability in the region.

Despite the considerable attention on the Gaza issue among Arab American communities, particularly in Michigan—a state with a notable Arab American population—this issue ranked lower in national priorities.

Even in states with considerable Muslim and Arab Americans, voters chose a president who is more, not less, committed to backing Israel’s security and completing its Middle East integration.

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, managed to secure a significant proportion of the Jewish vote. With 79% of Jewish voters backing her, up 10 points from Joe Biden’s support in 2020, Harris’s firm stance on Israel not only aligned with many Jewish Americans’ preferences but also assured continuous funding from influential pro-Israel groups. This strategic choice, although it alienated some Arab American voters, solidified her support base among Jewish voters.

In the broader context of the election, 81% of voters considered the economy to be their top issue, with foreign policy coming in fourth. This emphasis on economic concerns over foreign policy across the electorate highlighted that, while specific community issues like Gaza can momentarily influence public attitudes, broader national economic issues play the decisive role in consequential milestones.

Since last year’s October 7 we have witnessed the total de-population and destruction of Gaza and the erasure of the political prospects of Palestinian statehood and self-governability, through unforgiving military measures. One talking point we heard in the message and justifications offered by Iran and its proxy groups, is that despite Hamas’ military and political defeat in Gaza, and the massive death toll as a result of al-Aqsa Flood, the war in Gaza has made gains for the Palestinian cause by turning it into a global cause. One year later and while the war was ongoing still, the US has elected a president that not only won’t endorse a two-state solution, but one that will strengthen Israel by putting the survivability of Iran’s regime assets on the line.