Why the silent majority is the no longer silent on Hezbollah: 3 reasons

Two key narratives have historically kept the silent majority in Lebanon from voicing criticism of Hezbollah.

1.             Fear of reprisal kept many from showing discontent – especially in areas where the group’s dominance was most felt. Intimidation and suppression had long been used against vocal voices that defied dictated margins of political thought and expression.

2.             But also, many have chosen to turn a blind eye to Hezbollah’s use of violence because they saw it as a necessary evil. An imperfect but ‘effective’ alternative for a dysfunctional state seemingly incapable of proper governance and powerless in defending against external threats. Hezbollah was treated as a natural outcome of deep-seated failures – equally problematic as other sectarian groups – rather than a catalyst for state erosion.

Within Lebanon, Hezbollah’s political and security dominance was acknowledged by both allies and adversaries – and with it, its long-maintained illusion of defensive capabilities and deterrence – which the group has leveraged to maintain control over local affairs.

What has unfolded since Israel began degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities – at a dramatically accelerating pace since July – is nothing short of seismic. On all levels, from domestic politics to the region’s geostrategic calculus, everything has changed. With this, comes a dramatic shift in public opinion and expression in Lebanon, which is exposing and exacerbating negative long contained attitudes toward Hezbollah.

Anger, fear and resentment toward Israel is shared by an overwhelming majority of Lebanese. This is multiplied by the criminality of the government in Tel Aviv since October 7. Oddly enough, those shared sentiments are not translating into sympathy toward Hezbollah, which the vast majority of Lebanon now blames for unliterally starting and insisting on this devastating war. 

This shift reflects changes in fear and social conformity, identity dynamics, and the breakdown of cognitive dissonance as people now reassess their views and feel emboldened to express dissent.

                  1.             Fear and Social Conformity: Previously, individuals feared Hezbollah’s dominance, remaining silent to avoid social or physical repercussions. However, the recent Israeli attacks and Hezbollah’s losses have shaken its perceived invincibility. When dominant powers lose control, the societal fear that maintains silence often weakens. People who feared reprisal might now sense a window of opportunity, realizing that the power to suppress dissent is not as absolute as it seemed. With the weakening of this fear, social conformity around staying silent may also erode, leading to a greater willingness to speak out.

                  2.             Identity Dynamics: Hezbollah has long positioned itself as a protector of Lebanon’s Shiite community and broader national interests. For many, their sectarian or national identity was intertwined with Hezbollah’s role as a defender. But when a group’s protective narrative collapses in the face of losses or perceived ineffectiveness, individuals can experience a shift in how they relate to that identity. These events may lead people to prioritize their Lebanese national identity over sectarian affiliation, creating space for new forms of discourse about Lebanon’s future.

                  3.             Cognitive Dissonance: Those who believed Hezbollah’s protection justified its unchecked power may now face cognitive dissonance as this belief is contradicted by recent events. The inability of Hezbollah to safeguard Lebanon from Israeli strikes may force people to reconcile this dissonance by either doubling down on their previous beliefs or adjusting their views. Given the scale of the losses and the clear vulnerabilities exposed, many may resolve this dissonance by questioning Hezbollah’s broader role in Lebanon, leading to a public shift in sentiment.

The silent majority in Lebanon may no longer feel compelled to remain silent. The psychological barriers that previously maintained their silence—fear, identity entanglement, and cognitive dissonance—are being shattered. This presents a critical moment where public opinion can shift, and previously subdued voices may feel empowered to express their concerns about Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon’s political and military landscape.